Bawler / AD Marco 09 vs Braga B / Recap
FT · PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Relegation Group · Sunday, 26 April 2026

AD Marco 09 1–0 Braga BMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026

AD Marco 09
1–0
AD Marco 09 win
Braga B
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had AD Marco 09 at 47%, draw at 25%, Braga B at 28%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AD Marco 09.

> Pre-match probability vs result
09 win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
B win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
AD Marco 09 or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost

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