BAWLER
75.8%Most likely calls landed
1,699 won542 lost
Verified in public

2,241 forecasts.Hits and misses, all on the record.

57% of these calls are “Over 1.5 goals”, which landed 78.7% of the time. Calls on the match result alone (897) landed 72.7%.

0.181
Brier score · lower is better
+1.3 pts
Calibration gap · slightly hot
43
Competitions covered
208
Days since first forecast · 169 with a settled call
Calibration · said vs happened Said Happened
60–70
71% actual · 269
70–75
68% actual · 464
75–80
78% actual · 789
80–88
80% actual · 630
88%+
83% actual · 89

When we say 78%, it happens 78% of the time — that’s the whole product.

Hit rate by month · most likely callsdashed = 75.8% all-time
76%
75%
75%
69%
69%
81%
75%
75%
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
By marketmin 25 settled
Over 1.5 goals79%/1275
Home to win75%/204
Home or draw73%/376
Away or draw72%/212
Away to win69%/62
Over 2.5 goals62%/61
By competition · best to worstmin 40 settled · top 5
Eredivisie84%/107
EFL Cup84%/44
Liga Portugal82%/106
Belgian Pro League82%/92
Bundesliga81%/81
Every number above is recomputable from the raw ledger. Picks have been anchored to Bitcoin daily since 28 May 2026: 1,489 of 2,241 settled calls sit in a proof taken before kickoff. The 710 calls before that date predate anchoring, and 42 later ones were not captured in a snapshot.Open the full ledger →Verify →

The full ledger

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