> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 18:00 UTC
Albania vs Luxembourg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because Albania's xG of 1.31 combined with Luxembourg's 1.14 projects a fixture unlikely to finish goalless.
Win probability
37.1% home33.6% draw29.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AlbaniastepLuxembourg
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.31Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
6
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Albania 0–1 Luxembourg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+