> 11 Jun – 19 Jul 2026 · USA · Canada · Mexico
Every match of the first 48-team World Cup, priced by Bawler's model — four picks per game, each logged before kickoff and settled publicly, win or lose. The Banker pick is free on every fixture. So far this tournament: 72% Banker hit rate across 18 settled matches.
> warmup_form.last(14d)
Banker hits · pre-tournament internationals
Most recent settled
Friendlies and Nations League games run by the same Bawler model — read these as warm-up form ahead of the tournament, not the WC stat itself.
Bawler prices every match the same way it prices a Premier League game: a bivariate Poisson model produces a full scoreline distribution, then the four picks (Banker, Value, Bawl Out, Dark Horse). For national teams there's no week-to-week club xG, so strength is anchored on FIFA rankings plus recent form — a deliberately honest approach, and one reason international tournaments are harder to model than leagues. Read the full World Cup method.
Every World Cup pick is logged before kickoff with a tamper-evident hash and settled automatically — it all lands on the public track record, so you can see exactly how the model did across the tournament. Statistical analysis for entertainment, not betting advice. 18+.