> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 12:00 UTC
Angola vs Central African Republic
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Angola's 0.67 xG advantage and 63% win-or-draw probability make 1X the clear banker, punishing Central African Republic's anaemic 0.74 expected goals.
Win probability
49.2% home33.6% draw17.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AngolastepCentral African Republic
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match0.75
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.74
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
9
3
1
1
17
12
4
1
2
12
9
3
1
3
5
4
1
4
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Angola 3–0 Central African Republic
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+