> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Armenia vs Kazakhstan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Armenia's home advantage and 0.82 xG edge make 1X the smart banker at 65%, with the hosts favored to avoid defeat.
Win probability
53.5% home32.0% draw14.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArmeniastepKazakhstan
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match0.69
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.68
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
8
3
1
1
17
12
4
1
2
13
9
3
1
3
6
4
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Armenia 1–1 Kazakhstan
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+