> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 15:00 UTC
Armenia vs Moldova
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Armenia's home advantage and 0.82 xG edge make 1X the clear banker at 65% probability, with the hosts favoured to avoid defeat against a Moldova side generating just 0.68 expected goals.
Win probability
53.5% home32.0% draw14.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArmeniastepMoldova
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match0.69
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.68
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
8
3
1
1
17
12
4
1
2
13
9
3
1
3
6
4
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Armenia 1–1 Moldova
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+