> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 04:00 UTC
Austria vs Jordan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 72% because Austria's 1.54 xG advantage and creator Marcel Sabitzer's playmaking edge should generate multiple chances against Jordan's porous 1.02 xG baseline.
Win probability
46.0% home31.5% draw22.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AustriastepJordan
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.02
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.02
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
1
1
12
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Under 10.5 Corners + 1X + Marko Arnautović 1+ Shot on Target
Model 18.9% · @ 5.29x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Austria 3–1 Jordan
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+