> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 18:00 UTC
Azerbaijan vs Malta
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Azerbaijan's home advantage and 0.78 expected-goals edge justify backing 1X at 65%, a market that captures their 52% win probability plus the 32% draw cushion.
Win probability
52.2% home32.5% draw15.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AzerbaijanstepMalta
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match0.70
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.69
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
8
3
1
1
17
12
4
1
2
12
9
3
1
3
6
4
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Azerbaijan 0–2 Malta
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+