> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 18:00 UTC
Azerbaijan vs San Marino
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Azerbaijan's 54% win probability and 0.82 expected-goal advantage at home makes 1X the banker play at 65% odds, punishing San Marino's 0.68 xG ceiling.
Win probability
53.5% home32.0% draw14.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AzerbaijanstepSan Marino
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match0.69
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.68
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
8
3
1
1
17
12
4
1
2
13
9
3
1
3
6
4
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Azerbaijan 2–1 San Marino
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+