> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Belarus vs Syria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Belarus' home advantage pushes 1X to 74% despite Syria arriving with nearly identical attacking threat (1.07 xG vs 1.09), making the draw-or-home-win the clear banker in a genuinely even contest.
Win probability
32.6% home36.2% draw31.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BelarusstepSyria
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.07
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
12
7
2
1
1
13
13
7
3
1
2
7
7
4
1
3
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Belarus 4–1 Syria
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+