> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Monday 15 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Belgium vs Egypt
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Belgium's 39% win probability at home justifies backing 1X at 75%, where the hosts' narrow 0.21 xG edge offers modest upside but eliminates the Egypt upset risk.
Win probability
38.9% home31.5% draw29.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BelgiumstepEgypt
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.26
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+