> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Hoffenheim's Champions League desperation outweighs balanced xG; back X2 as mid-table Mönchengladbach lacks motivation to prevent away points.
Win probability
34.8% home30.4% draw34.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Borussia MönchengladbachstepTSG Hoffenheim
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match1.52
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.46
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
8
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–0 TSG Hoffenheim
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+