> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 15:00 UTC
Congo DR vs Chile
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Chile's 55% win probability and 0.87 expected-goal advantage make Draw or Chile (X2) the banker play at 81% combined likelihood.
Win probability
14.8% home30.4% draw54.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Congo DRstepChile
0.72Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.74Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.61
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
15
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7
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11
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5
2
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1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Congo DR 1–2 Chile
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+