Connecticut FC 1–2 Philadelphia Union IIMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026

1–2

Philadelphia Union II win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Connecticut FC at 44%, draw at 26%, Philadelphia Union II at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Connecticut FC to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

FC win

44%

Draw

26%

II win

30%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.45 – 1.15

Total 2.60

Actual

1 – 2

Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Connecticut FC or Draw (Double Chance)

Pre-match: 70%

✗ Lost

Value

BTTS Yes

Pre-match: 52%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

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