> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Sunday 07 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Curacao vs Aruba
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 79% is the play—Curacao's 1.77 xG dominance and 1.18 edge over Aruba virtually guarantees multiple shots find the net.
Win probability
62.7% home27.2% draw10.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CuracaostepAruba
1.72Base xG · rolling 26-match0.60
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.77Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.59
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
6
2
1
17
10
3
1
2
15
9
3
1
3
9
5
2
4
4
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Curacao 4–0 Aruba
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+