> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Czechia vs Guatemala
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability, backed by Czechia's 0.52 expected-goal edge and combined xG of 2.42—a gap too wide for a low-scoring stalemate.
Win probability
45.8% home32.5% draw21.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CzechiastepGuatemala
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match0.96
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.95
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
8
4
1
1
13
12
6
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Czechia 3–1 Guatemala
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+