> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 12:00 UTC
Ethiopia vs Malawi
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or Malawi win (X2) holds 79% of the model at odds that matter, built on Ethiopia's razor-thin 1.19 xG advantage in a fixture projecting nearly even at 2.34 total.
Win probability
33.6% home34.5% draw31.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EthiopiastepMalawi
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.17
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
11
6
2
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ethiopia 1–0 Malawi
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+