> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 02 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Georgia vs Romania
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 81% probability because both sides project nearly even attacking intent (Georgia 1.13 xG, Romania 1.29 xG), making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in an open friendly.
Win probability
29.4% home33.8% draw36.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GeorgiastepRomania
1.10Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.13Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.29
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
9
11
7
3
1
1
10
13
8
4
1
2
6
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Georgia 1–1 Romania
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+