> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 03 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Gibraltar vs British Virgin Islands
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or away win (X2) at 75% wins the day as Gibraltar's marginal 1.09 xG edge dissolves into a 38% draw probability that dominates the 37% home-win case.
Win probability
36.7% home37.8% draw25.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GibraltarstepBritish Virgin Islands
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match0.88
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.87
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
12
5
2
1
15
13
6
2
2
8
7
3
1
3
3
3
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Gibraltar 4–0 British Virgin Islands
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+