> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Gibraltar vs Cayman Islands
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Gibraltar's 35% win probability at home against a narrow 0.16 xG advantage makes 1X at 78% the play—draw is the most likely single outcome.
Win probability
35.1% home38.0% draw27.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GibraltarstepCayman Islands
1.03Base xG · rolling 26-match0.91
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.06Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.90
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
13
6
2
1
15
13
6
2
2
8
7
3
1
3
3
3
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Gibraltar 4–1 Cayman Islands
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+