> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 12:00 UTC
Hong Kong vs Mongolia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Hong Kong's 1X at 64% win probability is the play here—they hold a decisive 0.40 xG advantage at home against a Mongolia side struggling to create (0.79 xG).
Win probability
41.5% home36.8% draw21.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Hong KongstepMongolia
1.15Base xG · rolling 26-match0.80
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.79
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
11
4
1
1
16
13
5
1
2
10
8
3
1
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hong Kong 2–0 Mongolia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+