> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 17:45 UTC
Hungary vs Finland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 79% probability, backed by Hungary's 0.32 xG edge and attacking intent that consistently breaks down a Finland side expected to create just 1.02 chances.
Win probability
40.6% home33.8% draw25.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HungarystepFinland
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.34Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.02
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
5
2
1
13
13
7
2
1
2
8
9
4
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hungary 2–1 Finland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+