> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 13:00 UTC
Indonesia vs Oman
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Oman's 0.49 xG advantage and 44% win probability make Draw/Oman (X2) at 76% the banker play in this friendly.
Win probability
20.4% home35.1% draw44.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
IndonesiastepOman
0.78Base xG · rolling 26-match1.32
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.81Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
16
10
4
1
1
10
13
8
4
1
2
4
5
3
1
3
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Indonesia 3–0 Oman
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+