FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Kocaelispor 0–1 Fatih KaragümrükMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kocaelispor at 44%, draw at 31%, Fatih Karagümrük at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Kocaelispor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kocaelispor win
44%
Draw
31%
Karagümrük win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.18
Total 2.76
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.41x
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓