> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 13:00 UTC
Lesotho vs Kenya
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or Kenya Win (X2) offers compelling value at 75% probability, backed by Kenya's 0.45 expected-goal advantage in a fixture where stalemate remains the likeliest single outcome.
Win probability
21.3% home35.4% draw43.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LesothostepKenya
0.80Base xG · rolling 26-match1.30
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.83Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.28
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
12
16
10
4
1
1
10
13
8
4
1
2
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5
3
1
3
1
1
1
4
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lesotho 1–1 Kenya
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+