> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 03 Jun, 18:45 UTC
Luxembourg vs Italy
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Italy's 0.57 expected-goals advantage and 47% win probability make X2 the banker play, offering value in a friendly where the visitors' superior quality should prevent defeat.
Win probability
21.7% home31.1% draw47.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LuxembourgstepItaly
0.98Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.01Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.58
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Luxembourg 0–1 Italy
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+