> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Moldova vs Bulgaria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Bulgaria's 0.52 xG advantage and 45% win probability make the X2 (draw or away win) the logical banker at 77%, shielding against Moldova's home-field unpredictability in a friendly with thin goal-scoring margins.
Win probability
19.8% home34.9% draw45.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MoldovastepBulgaria
0.77Base xG · rolling 26-match1.34
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.79Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.32
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
12
16
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5
2
1
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8
4
1
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1
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1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Moldova 2–2 Bulgaria
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+