FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Myanmar 61 GuamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Myanmar
61
Myanmar win
Guam
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Myanmar at 42%, draw at 37%, Guam at 21%. The match ended 6-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Myanmar.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Myanmar win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
37%
Guam win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.190.79
Total 1.98
Actual
61
Total 7 (+5.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 5.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Value
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.34x
  • Under 10.5 Corners
  • 1X
  • Over 1.5 Goals
> What we said pre-match
"Myanmar's 0.41 expected-goals advantage and 64% 1X probability make the draw-or-home result the banker play in this lopsided friendly."

> More from Bawler