FT · USA: MLS Next Pro · Sunday, 26 April 2026

New York Red Bulls II 41 Columbus Crew 2Match recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026

New York Red Bulls II
41
New York Red Bulls II win
Columbus Crew 2
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had New York Red Bulls II at 44%, draw at 26%, Columbus Crew 2 at 30%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward New York Red Bulls II.

> Pre-match probability vs result
II win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
2 win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.451.15
Total 2.60
Actual
41
Total 5 (+2.4 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
New York Red Bulls II or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost

> More from Bawler