> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Panama vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 79% probability is the play here—Panama and Bosnia-Herzegovina project nearly identical attacking threat (1.20 vs 1.17 xG), with a combined expected goals total of 2.37 that favors multiple goals.
Win probability
33.5% home34.4% draw32.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PanamastepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.19
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.20Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.17
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
9
11
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8
3
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1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Panama 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+