> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 00:45 UTC
Panama vs Dominican Republic
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 79% probability because Panama's home platform and Dominican Republic's modest 1.05 xG floor combine to sustain a low-scoring but inevitable multi-goal script.
Win probability
39.1% home34.1% draw26.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PanamastepDominican Republic
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.31Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
5
2
1
12
13
7
2
1
2
8
9
4
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Panama 4–2 Dominican Republic
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+