> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 03 Jun, 18:45 UTC
Poland vs Nigeria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or Nigeria win (X2) at 78% is the banker because Poland and Nigeria project nearly identically at 1.33 and 1.31 xG respectively, leaving no edge for the home side.
Win probability
34.4% home32.3% draw33.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PolandstepNigeria
1.29Base xG · rolling 26-match1.33
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Poland 2–2 Nigeria
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+