> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Saturday 13 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Qatar vs Switzerland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals carries 72% probability because both sides project combined expected goals of 2.71, creating enough attacking threat to clear the line despite Qatar's 31% win chance.
Win probability
31.1% home31.7% draw37.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
QatarstepSwitzerland
1.19Base xG · rolling 26-match1.48
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.29Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.43
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Qatar 1–1 Switzerland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+