> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Russia vs Trinidad and Tobago
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 81% probability because Russia's 1.42 xG plus Trinidad and Tobago's 1.01 create a combined expected-goal floor that rarely stays under two strikes in open play.
Win probability
43.1% home32.9% draw24.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RussiastepTrinidad and Tobago
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.02
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.01
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
4
2
1
12
13
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Russia 3–0 Trinidad and Tobago
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+