> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 17:00 UTC
San Marino vs Bangladesh
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
San Marino's 38% draw probability and narrow xG gap (1.02 vs 0.93) make 1X the banker play at 76% odds in an evenly-matched friendly.
Win probability
33.1% home38.2% draw28.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San MarinostepBangladesh
0.99Base xG · rolling 26-match0.94
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.02Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.93
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
13
6
2
1
14
13
6
2
2
7
7
3
1
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
San Marino 1–2 Bangladesh
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+