FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Sittard 1–2 FeyenoordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sittard at 14%, draw at 19%, Feyenoord at 67%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Feyenoord.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sittard win
14%
Draw
19%
Feyenoord win
67%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.17 – 2.68
Total 3.85
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 90%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.23x
- Away Win✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓