> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 16:30 UTC
Slovakia vs Montenegro
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Slovakia's home advantage barely moves the needle in a 34%-35%-31% three-way split, making X2 the banker at 79% as both teams project near-identical attacking threat around 1.17 xG.
Win probability
33.7% home35.1% draw31.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SlovakiastepMontenegro
1.13Base xG · rolling 26-match1.13
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.17Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.11
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
11
6
2
1
1
12
13
7
3
1
2
7
8
4
2
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Slovakia 2–2 Montenegro
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+