> MATCH.PREDICT()·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2·Friday 01 May, 19:30 UTC
Sporting CP B vs Benfica B
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
37.8% home32.9% draw29.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sporting CP BstepBenfica B
1.12Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.21Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.03
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
11
6
2
1
13
13
7
2
1
2
8
8
4
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 9.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 17.4% · @ 5.75x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sporting CP B 0–1 Benfica B
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+