FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Torino 2–2 InterMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Torino at 44%, draw at 26%, Inter at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Torino to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
44%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Inter win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.10
Total 2.52
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Torino or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won