> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS Next Pro·Sunday 26 Apr, 23:00 UTC
Vancouver Whitecaps 2 vs Colorado Rapids 2
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
44.0% home26.0% draw30.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Vancouver Whitecaps 2stepColorado Rapids 2
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.15
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
5
2
1
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Vancouver Whitecaps 2 2–1 Colorado Rapids 2
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+