> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Venezuela vs Türkiye
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 76% looks bulletproof: Venezuela's 1.64 xG vs Türkiye's 0.62 creates a 1.01-goal chasm that almost guarantees multiple scores.
Win probability
58.6% home29.5% draw11.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
VenezuelastepTürkiye
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match0.63
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.62
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
7
2
1
17
11
3
1
2
14
9
3
1
3
8
5
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Venezuela 1–2 Türkiye
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+