> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Union Berlin's 0.28 xG advantage and 74% Over 1.5 Goals probability offers the strongest edge despite modest win odds.
Win probability
40.9% home29.8% draw29.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
1. FC Union BerlinstepFC Augsburg
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.34
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
5
7
5
2
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1
8
11
8
3
1
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7
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1
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1
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1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 25.1% · @ 3.98x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
1. FC Union Berlin 4–0 FC Augsburg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+