FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
1. FC Union Berlin 4–0 FC AugsburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had 1. FC Union Berlin at 41%, draw at 30%, FC Augsburg at 29%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward 1. FC Union Berlin.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Berlin win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Augsburg win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.34
Total 2.96
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 45%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.98x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Union Berlin's 0.28 xG advantage and 74% Over 1.5 Goals probability offers the strongest edge despite modest win odds."