FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 26 April 2026
AFS 1–1 Sporting CPMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AFS at 47%, draw at 25%, Sporting CP at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was AFS to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
AFS win
47%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
CP win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
AFS or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won