Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Sporting
Team profile

Sporting Prediction

Per-game numbers from 51 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.5
a game
10.0 faced
On target
6.3
a game
3.4 faced
Goals
2.4 – 0.9
scored – conceded
a game, 51 matches
Next match
69%
Sporting win chance
vs Alverca · Sat 22 Aug 19:30

Sporting prediction: for Sporting's next match — Sporting vs Alverca on Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Sporting win looks most likely (69%).

Sporting carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.62 expected goals per game against a Liga Portugal average of 1.23. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.33 a game against 1.62 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is Alverca, where the model makes them clear favourites at 69%.

Sporting in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.4
Goals · per game
let in 0.9
Home 2.9Away 1.9
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 3.6
Home 5.9Away 6.0
15.5
Shots · per game
faced 10.0
Home 17.7Away 13.5
6.3
On target · per game
faced 3.4
Home 7.2Away 5.5
Last 6 games
14 Aug
3-2
vs Vitoria Guimaraes
5-1
14 Aug
3-2
vs Vitória de Guimaraes
5-1
08 Aug
1-2
@ Cartagines
3-4
08 Aug
2-2
@ Estrela
4-5
02 Aug
1-1
@ Puntarenas
2-6
16 May
3-0
vs Gil Vicente
6-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Alverca · Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
69%
Sporting
Draw
22%
Loss
9%
Alverca
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Sporting compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.62
Above average
Goals against
1.12
Tighter than most
Record
5W 3D 1L
9 settled
Real goals
2.3 – 1.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.62
Conceded1.12

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.23 scored, 1.19 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.62 xG per match · +0.39 above the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average of 1.23.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Sporting fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on Sporting

89%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 9, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%5/5
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 9)

Fri 14 Augvs Vitória de Guimaraes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Aug@ Estrela
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 16 Mayvs Gil Vicente
High confidence: 1X
Mon 11 May@ Rio Ave
High confidence: X2
Sun 26 Apr@ AFS
High confidence: AFS or Draw (Double Chance)
Wed 15 Apr@ Arsenal
High confidence: 1X
Tue 07 Aprvs Arsenal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Aprvs Santa Clara
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Mar@ Alverca
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INRodrigo ZalazarRWfrom Braga€30m
INIbrahima BaCBfrom Famalicao€21m
INIssa DoumbiaCMfrom Venezia€21m
INSergi AltimiraDMfrom Real Betis€19m
INNestory IrankundaSTfrom Watford€15m
INSilas AndersenDMfrom Häcken€10m
INPedro LimaCMfrom AVS Futebol SAD€4m
INJesse DerryLWfrom ChelseaLoan
OUTGeovany QuendaRWto Chelsea€50m
OUTOusmane DiomandeCBto Nottingham Forest€40m
OUTMorten HjulmandDMto Atletico Madrid€40m
OUTTrincãoAMto Al Ahli€39m
OUTAlisson SantosAMto Napoli€17m
OUTDiogo TravassosRWto Braga€5.5m
OUTRodrigo RibeiroSTto Augsburg€5m
OUTHidemasa MoritaDMto Hull CityFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Sporting and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly