> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 09 May, 17:00 UTC
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
39.8% home29.8% draw30.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AlanyasporstepKayserispor
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.44
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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5
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11
8
4
1
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9
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3
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + X2
Model 26.9% · @ 3.72x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Alanyaspor 3–1 Kayserispor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+