FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Alanyaspor 3–1 KayserisporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Alanyaspor at 40%, draw at 30%, Kayserispor at 30%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Alanyaspor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alanyaspor win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Kayserispor win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.39
Total 2.99
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.72x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- X2✗