> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 03 Jun, 18:00 UTC
Albania vs Israel
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because Albania's 1.40 xG advantage and 41% win odds suggest both sides will create enough chances to breach that low threshold at home.
Win probability
41.4% home33.1% draw25.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AlbaniastepIsrael
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
5
2
1
12
13
7
2
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Albania 0–1 Israel
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+