Bawler / Albania vs Israel / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 03 June 2026

Albania 0–1 IsraelMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 03 June 2026

Albania
0–1
Israel win
Israel
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Albania at 41%, draw at 33%, Israel at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Albania to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Albania win
41%
Draw
33%
Israel win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.05
Total 2.45
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.95x
  • Over 1.5 Goals✗
  • 1X✗
  • Over 8.5 Corners–
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because Albania's 1.40 xG advantage and 41% win odds suggest both sides will create enough chances to breach that low threshold at home."

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